The crypto markets response to the 2025 presidential inauguration, led by former President Donald Trump, was notably subdued. Bybit, in collaboration with Block Scholes, released their weekly crypto derivatives report, highlighting that expectations surrounding Trump’s policies, especially regarding BTC, did not materialize as anticipated. Despite the initial speculation that crypto-friendly executive orders would follow his inauguration, the absence of these measures caused implied volatility to decline. However, realized volatility showed a slight uptick, creating a complex speculative environment. Leading up to the inauguration, the market was buzzing with speculation. The […]
Crypto Markets Unfazed By Trump's Inauguration
The crypto markets response to the 2025 presidential inauguration, led by former President Donald Trump, was notably subdued. Bybit, in collaboration with Block Scholes, released their weekly crypto derivatives report, highlighting that expectations surrounding Trump’s policies, especially regarding BTC, did not materialize as anticipated. Despite the initial speculation that crypto-friendly executive orders would follow his inauguration, the absence of these measures caused implied volatility to decline. However, realized volatility showed a slight uptick, creating a complex speculative environment.
Leading up to the inauguration, the market was buzzing with speculation. The launch of the TRUMP and MELANIA meme coins stirred excitement, causing a brief shift in the derivatives markets toward a bullish outlook. Traders were hopeful that the new administration might usher in crypto-friendly policies. Despite this, the lack of concrete political action left markets less enthusiastic. The anticipated BTC-related executive orders did not emerge, resulting in lower implied volatility. Meanwhile, realized volatility saw an increase, signaling market fluctuations but without the strong bullish sentiment expected.
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Solana (SOL) experienced a notable surge during the inauguration weekend. This was largely due to the launch of the TRUMP meme coin on Solana-based decentralized exchanges (DEXs). The introduction of the “husband and wife” meme coins generated significant trading volume, driving Solana’s fee generation to new heights. This shift highlighted Solana’s potential as a major player in the cryptocurrency space, positioning it ahead of Ethereum competitors in terms of network activity. The move underscored the growing relevance of Solana in the broader crypto ecosystem, especially as it seeks to capture market share from Ethereum.
Despite the lack of a definitive bullish spark, the derivatives market remained resilient. Perpetual swap funding rates continued to show a neutral-to-bullish bias. Open interest in derivative products remained steady, signaling that traders were holding positions in anticipation of future opportunities. While the inauguration did not produce the expected surge, the market viewed it as one of many potential catalysts. The persistence of high funding rates and a bullish tilt reflected that crypto traders are always looking for the next big move, even when political events don’t meet expectations.
Speculation around Bitcoin (BTC) also intensified ahead of the inauguration, with traders betting on possible policy changes. Earlier anticipation of a strategic BTC reserve led to a flurry of short-tenor options positioning. This resulted in a strong buying trend for BTC calls, particularly at the money, which saw the steepest inversion since the November 2024 election. While front-end volatility pricing has calmed down, the market’s bias towards out-of-the-money calls remains. This indicates ongoing speculation that the BTC market could experience significant price movements, even without immediate political action.
The crypto markets showed a muted response to the 2025 inauguration, despite early excitement surrounding Trump’s policies and meme coin launches. With no major executive orders impacting Bitcoin or the wider crypto market, the speculative environment has remained complex. However, derivatives markets and platforms like Solana have shown resilience, reflecting the broader sector’s potential to adapt and thrive, even in uncertain political climates.
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