The worldwide count of positive cases in 2021 can stand anywhere between 20 to 60 crore, says research.
India might see 2.87 lakh Coronavirus cases per day in 2021.
The worst is yet to come for India, as researchers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) laid out a study claiming India might see 2.87 lakh Coronavirus cases per day by March-May 2021, if a vaccine is not found. The study also projects the worldwide count to be anywhere between 20 crore to 60 crore, in the absence of a treatment.
Researchers used SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, a standard mathematical model for infectious diseases used by epidemiologists for their analysis and collated data from 84 countries with reliable testing, spanning 4.75 billion people.
The researchers dynamic epidemiological model and the study rings warning bells to the world with a major battle ahead. According to the study, India will be the worst hit country, followed by the United States with 95,000 cases per day, South Africa 21,000 cases per day and Iran 17,000 cases per day by the end of February 2021.
The study takes into account three scenarios:
1. Current testing rates and their response
2. If testing increases by 0.1 per cent per day from July 1, 2020
3. If testing remains at current levels but contact rate to perceived risk is set to 8 (i.e. if one infected person can infect eight people).
The model shows the importance of early and aggressive testing to be the key to contain the virus and a delay in testing could prove fatal in the long run.
“Both these scenarios project a very large burden of new cases in the fall (September-November) 2020, with hundreds of millions of cases concentrated in a few countries estimated to have insufficient responses given perceived risks (primarily India, but also Bangladesh, Pakistan, and USA). In contrast, changes in response policies would make a major difference,” the study says.
As of July 8, the worldwide positive count stands at a staggering 1.2 crore with the United States leading the chart with 30 lakh cases, and Brazil 16 lakh cases followed by India with 7.54 lakh cases. India saw a steady rise of 21,000+ positive cases continuously for the past six days.
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